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Weekly Commodity Report w/e 5th October 2018

UK wheat futures during the the week finishing at £179.30/T, with some volatility throughout the week.  August has produced an all-time high for cereal usage in animal feed in the UK.


The AHDB reported that total cereal use for the month was up 5000 T from August 17 with commercial and integrated feed production up 5% on last year.  Ruminant feed demand was 15% up.  The price rise of wheat relative to other cereals increased the competitiveness of maize, and its usage increased by 35% to 36000 T.  Sterling has been strengthening, due to potentially improving Brexit discussions which has further reduced the competitiveness of UK wheat vs French, so UK wheat exports are still not competitive, and it feels as if wheat prices are likely to firm further. 

Globally wheat prices were slightly higher this week.  Informa increased the world 2018 wheat crop by 2 Mln T mainly linked to a better EU wheat supply figure and supportive weather reports for wet conditions for the Canadian harvest.  Dry conditions are helping European winter wheat planting, which has prompted some buying.  Uncertainty over Russian exports continues to fuel rising prices following reports that a Russian exports could be temporarily suspended (due to phytosanitary conditions) at up to 30 inland grain loading points.  Despite Russian price rises, their wheat remains export competitive.  Russian exports so far this season total 13 Mln T (9.5 Mln T last year with a record crop) but many believe  that increased controls and checks currently being reported are more to do with curbing exports without having to officially implement new quality control measures. 


This week soya bean prices have lifted, whilst soya meal prices have remained low.  Brazil continues to be the supplier of choice for China, despite the strengthening of Brazilian currency.  Brazilian producers are planting at a record pace to meet the rising Chinese demand. US soya bean sales continue to disappoint most of the trade, despite some believing that signs of improvements are starting to appear.  Wet weather in the US Midwest predict that 2/3rds of the corn and soya area could receive heavy rain and rising water in the rivers which may make transport more difficult.  The trade focused on the most recent USDA report and its increased estimate for the 2018/19 soya bean yield and therefore increasing end stock predictions.

Perhaps you have had a long week at work and are looking forward to a little tipple this weekend.  Or perhaps you took advice from our recent suggestion for £2 million pound gene edited lifesaving eggs and are preparing to bath in your favoured tipple. 

This week the owners and staff at a winery in Conegliano, Italy found themselves unexpectedly showering in Prosecco when one of the 30,000 litre fermentation tanks filled with the sparkling wine burst.  A clip was shared by one of its employees and people cannot decide if this is the greatest opportunity for a wine based shower or a sad waste of the fizzy stuff.